Welcome to our very first “Ask the Experts” blog post. After receiving requests from a number of you over the past couple years, we’ve finally given in and decided to devote some time each week to answering questions about draft strategy, specific players and statistical analysis. If you’ve got a question for us feel free to email us at experts@draftmvp.com or just comment on a blog post.
Our first ever “Ask the Experts” question comes from Erik in Boise, Idaho, who asks:
“Is Matt Holliday a 1st or 2nd round pick this year? What should I think about him after his move to the A’s?”
At DraftMVP, we LOVE questions like this because we can use statistics to really dig into the player and his change in home stadiums. Let’s break this down:
First, a little recap:
Following a very strong 2006 season, Holliday was projected as a solid 2nd round pick and his monster 2007 rewarded scores of owners who got him on the cheap. In fact, according to our super-secret DraftMVP ranking system, his 2007 stats made him the 2nd most valuable batter in baseball (note, this is without taking position scarcity into account). That 36-HR/137-RBI/0.340-AVG performance easily pushed him into the 1st round last year. We don’t need to tell the ’08 Holliday owners out there: 2008 was a disappointment. His power numbers dropped quite a bit. But, there was one bright spot: his surprise 28 SB’s gave him added value in standard 5×5 rotisserie leagues and in the process, confused most of the fantasy universe in evaluating him for ’09.
Will Matt Holliday continue being a stealthy stealing machine with the A’s?
It’s no secret that the Oakland A’s do not like to run risks on the base paths. Just take a look at the numbers:
Oakland A’s Team Stolen Bases
2000: 40 SB (last in AL)
2001: 68 SB (2nd to last in AL)
2002: 46 SB (last in AL)
2003: 48 SB (2nd to last in AL)
2004: 47 SB (last in AL)
2005: 31 SB (last in AL)
2006: 61 SB (10th in AL)
2007: 52 SB (last in AL)
2008: 88 SB (7th in AL)
Yeah, we were just as surprised as you that they were in the middle of the pack last year but don’t be fooled! The A’s had the lowest scoring offense in the American League with a young team that had trouble scoring runs. Without someone able to knock in runs, they had to resort to an un-Oakland like offense and rely more on SB’s. Their 1st half versus 2nd half splits also support this… as their RBI’s tanked along with their team SLG% after the All Star Break, their SB’s went up in a last ditch effort to get runners home. With off-season moves for Holliday along with Jason Giambi, I think that the modest SB numbers for Oakland last year were an outlier rather than a trend.
The Bottom line: Don’t count on Holliday’s recent stolen base production. I think Holliday’s SBs are going to drop back to the 10-12 SB level. If he’s anything like the 2007 Shannon Stewart pickup, the A’s will let him run a bit and he won’t fall all the way to single digits.
Fine, enough with the baserunning, how about his power, is it coming back?
Even with last year’s power drop, Holliday’s stats still put him in the top 20 for batters overall (and top 10 for OF’s). However, a move from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field forces us to evaluate his home/away splits. Unfortunately, they don’t forecast well for his slugging numbers. Take a look over the last 3 years:
2006 – 2008 Batting Splits
AB R H 2B HR RBI SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
AWAY 869 147 257 58 33 120 184 .296 .370 .486 .856
HOME 908 199 328 75 62 219 156 .361 .430 .669 1.099
Holliday may well end up a .300 hitter next year, with 40 doubles, 20-25 HR’s, roughly 100 runs and 80-90 RBI’s. (runs and RBI predictions in “new team” cases are notoriously unreliable, however) That would end up being pretty similar to 2008′s power numbers.
What does this all mean in fantasy?
Re-calculating my custom rankings puts him right on the edge of being a top 30 batter with stats strikingly similar to OF Nick Markakis.
In a fantasy draft, that puts him in the 35th – 40th pick range.
If the decision were between Holliday and Markakis, I would give a slight edge to Holliday since he doesn’t have to face the AL East Bos/NYY/TB pitching staffs for 57 games (and gets 19 games against the Texas Rangers!). Thinking about my own draft gameplan, I wouldn’t pull the trigger on drafting Holliday in the 3rd or even 4th round knowing that I can fill that OF spot with other near-equivalent guys a couple rounds later. Holliday is just not a good value in early rounds this season, especially if it looks like you’ll still have a chance at players like Nate McLouth, Curtis Granderson, Bobby Abreu, and even Torii Hunter later in the draft. I’ll gladly let someone else draft Holliday in the first few rounds and plug another position instead. But if I’m looking for a well-rounded stat contributor and he’s still available in the 5th round, then I might be excited for a little Holliday…