We’ve heard the question so many times that we gave in folks; yes, that’s right, we’re going to talk about drafting Alex Rodriguez/A-Rod/A-Roid.
If you’re not into reading somewhat lengthy analysis or don’t want to know how you can approach your draft more strategically, I’ll cut to the chase and give you our answer:
Don’t take A-Rod with your top 5 to 7 picks, it’s NOT WORTH THE RISK.
(If you’re going to duck out at this point, make sure that you signup for our draft tool and get it configured for your upcoming drafts!)
“All right,” I can hear some of you asking, “what gives? What do you mean it’s not worth the risk? He could come back and be a monster.”
This is where DraftMVP is different from most of the fantasy world: we view your fantasy baseball team as a portfolio of players who generate statistics towards clearly defined goals (aka the stats categories for your leagues).
When framed that way, we can come to an important conclusion:
**Diminishing risk in your early picks is ESSENTIAL to having a successful draft**
Why? Because it is far harder to discover the stats contribution of early round draft picks in later rounds or on the waiver wire. Of course, it’s possible, but it’s much less likely.
Instead of filling your screen with tons of numbers though, we’ll make our point with some charts from the DraftMVP drafting tool. We think that they help illustrate the point much more clearly.
First, we’re going to start by identifying an average team that won its league last year¹. This team performed well across the board and like most winning roto teams, it was a top 4 scorer² in 8 out of the 10 categories. This is an important point to understand: most winning teams will be able to show similar stats at the end of the season.
So, how did this championship team draft and of course, what can we all learn from it? In the first 5 rounds, this team took 4 batters:
- Hanley Ramirez
- Alfonso Soriano
- Hunter Pence
- Torii Hunter
Using our charts, we can see what their statistical contributions looked like:
If you’re not a user of DraftMVP, this chart is a little confusing. What’s important to focus on is that the column on the left-hand side shows your team’s % achievement against DraftMVP targets: our predictions of where your batting stats need to be to be confident of a top finish in each category.
Review this chart, what do you see? It appears that these first 4 batters get your team halfway or further towards the DraftMVP targets in all but one category. Ok, that sounds like a pretty good start, right?
Next, let’s take a look at their full active roster of 9 batters (we’re going to ignore their bench players, who don’t contribute to stats):
On the back half of the draft, this player managed to get less output from his last 5 starters than he got out of his first 4! Add to that surprising fact another point of note: one of this player’s late-round picks was Josh Hamilton, arguably last year’s best value.
The logical takeaway here should be this, considering that this example is proven out by fantasy leagues all over the place: in your first 5 or so rounds, you should be targeting players who will ensure that you’re well established in each of your stat categories. In the early rounds, you NEED to find players who you can be confident in getting half or more of your statistics.
Which brings us back to our Ask the Experts question: A-Rod’s not going to be capable of contributing to that goal. Missing somewhere between 4 and 8 weeks of the season ensures that he’s handicapped, statistically, even if he comes back and produces immediately. The risk of him contributing less than your team needs from him is too high to justify drafting him early on.
Alternatively, if you’re in a 12 team league and he’s still available in the 7th or 8th round, it might make more sense. Moreover, if the DraftMVP charts are telling you that you’re on pace for a statistically well-rounded team, then you KNOW that you’ve got more room to work with in later rounds.
That’s exactly the kind of real-time draft decision-making that will propel you to your league’s championship this year.
Footnotes:
1 In an 11 person, rotisserie-style league with traditional 5×5 metrics
² In an 11 person roto league, 1st place gets 11 points, 2nd gets 10 etc etc